Happy New Year. Hope you got some rest. Airfreight certainly didn’t (and never does for that matter).
So, let’s skip the pleasantries and get right into it. Our focus to kick off 2026 is on IATA’s December 2025 “Global Outlook for Air Transport” report, and how the latest IATA statistics paint a clear picture of what’s ahead for anyone moving urgent freight in 2026.
Five data points cut to the heart of it.
Let’s start with the big picture. Global air cargo volumes are growing, but the gains are modest at best.
Through October 2025, worldwide demand measured in cargo ton-kilometers sat just 3.3% above the prior year. IATA revised its 2025 growth forecast to around 3.1% year over year and projects 2.6% for 2026. After importers rushed shipments through late 2024 ahead of tariff changes, many have pulled back.
Here’s where it gets especially tricky for urgent freight: Capacity is outpacing demand. October saw available ton-kilometers climb 5.1% while actual demand rose only 4.1%. Load factors are dropping, which creates an odd paradox. Space is plentiful overall, but competition gets fierce when you need priority handling on specific lanes.
Manufacturers remain cautious. Export orders are soft. Price and space volatility will likely define the year ahead, and having a flexible logistics partner won’t be optional.
While global growth stays modest, one region is running hot. Asia-Pacific carriers are leading the pack by a wide margin.
IATA statistics show Asia-Pacific demand climbed 9% year over year in June 2025 and held strong at 8.3% in October. No other region comes close. Much of the surge traces back to supply chains retooling around U.S. trade tariffs. Chinese exporters rushed goods to alternative markets and added stopovers to sidestep the steepest duties.
Routes within and from Asia posted double-digit growth. Europe-Asia service jumped 10.6% in June. Even Africa-Asia and Middle East-Asia lanes ran strong, fueled by inventory restocking and e-commerce demand.
The pattern is clear: When one trade lane throttles back, another lights up. Something urgent freight managers should certainly take note of related to capacity and pricing.
Not every lane is thriving. While Asia-Pacific routes surge overall, the long-established Asia-North America corridor tells a different story.
IATA statistics show the Asia-to-North America trade lane contracted for the sixth straight month by October 2025. June data had this lane down 4.8% year over year, and North American carriers saw total freight traffic fall 8.3% that same month. October improved slightly but still showed a 2.7% decline. Ongoing U.S. tariff impacts continue to pinch demand, and IATA now projects North America’s cargo market will shrink slightly.
For urgent shipments bound for North American destinations, that weakness creates real problems. Scheduled belly-hold capacity from Asia is thinning out. Competition for the remaining space is heating up. Rate swings can hit without warning.
Traditional Asia-North America routes won’t be reliable fallbacks in 2026. Alternative routing options and carriers must be on the table.
Beyond Asia and North America, every region is writing its own story. The picture gets complicated fast.
European carriers have been quietly steady. IATA statistics show demand up 4.3% in October 2025, with intercontinental routes particularly strong. Europe-Asia flights jumped 10.6% in June, and Europe-North America climbed 4.8%. As Asia-to-U.S. lanes weaken, European networks are stepping in as viable alternatives for rerouted freight.
The Middle East is harder to read. Carriers posted 5.7% growth in October, yet overall regional volume may still dip 1.5% for 2025. Red Sea shipping is normalizing, and the pull-forward rush that drove earlier demand has cooled. That said, the region remains volatile, and conditions can change quickly.
Latin America and Africa round out the picture with modest but steady gains around 3-4%.
What does all of this mean for urgent freight? A lane running hot today can go flat next month. If you’re managing mission-critical shipments, you need visibility across multiple regions at once. Your backup plan might suddenly become your primary route.
Finally, regional dynamics tell only part of the story. Several other forces are pulling at the market simultaneously.
Trade policy remains a wild card. IATA Director General Willie Walsh put it plainly: “Stability and predictability are essential supports for trade.” Tariffs threaten both. Jet fuel prices have also ticked up, adding pressure to rates. And while global industrial output grew around 5% in mid-2025, forecasts suggest demand will slow from here.
Then there’s the capacity question. Carriers have been adding space faster than volumes can absorb it, which pushes yields down and prompts some to idle freighters during shoulder seasons. But those imbalances flip fast. October 2025 set a volume record with 4.1% growth even as lanes shifted underneath shippers.
All of the above point to a year in which conditions can change on a dime. Spare capacity today can vanish tomorrow when a tariff announcement drops or a seasonal surge hits. That’s why when it comes to AOG recovery and mission-critical freight, “wait and see” simply doesn’t work.
The IATA statistics have a consistent narrative: uneven growth, shifting trade flows, contracting lanes, and tariff surprises waiting around every corner. No single route or provider will solve every challenge 2026 throws your way. When a lane tightens overnight, you need a partner who can pivot fast. When demand spikes without warning, you need a team already in motion. And that’s precisely what we bring at Carrier 911:
The IATA statistics we’ve covered all point in the same direction: 2026 will test supply chains that aren’t ready to adapt. Global growth is modest and uneven. Trade routes keep shifting as tariffs redraw the map. Some lanes run, while others contract. And market conditions can flip between quarters, sometimes between weeks. In other words, if you’re moving AOG parts or keeping automotive lines fed, “business as usual” won’t cut it. Every critical shipment needs a Plan B and probably a Plan C.
That’s the world we built Carrier 911 for. Our 24/7 crisis teams, dedicated fleet, real-time tracking, and final-mile delivery capabilities exist because urgent freight doesn’t care about market volatility or tariff announcements. We’ve spent years solving AOG recoveries and production emergencies, and we know what’s at stake when your shipment absolutely cannot wait.
Want to see how it works? Reach out to our team and see a Carrier 911 demo.
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