Exclusive-use trucking runs on a simple promise: one truck, one load, your freight only. Especially for supply chain managers moving AOG parts or automotive components, it’s the difference between a saved contract and a catastrophe.
However, that promise is showing cracks and is on the verge of breaking down.
The small fleets that built exclusive-use capacity — mostly immigrant-owned, mostly under 10 trucks — are caught between stricter ELP (English Language Proficiency) enforcement and immigration crackdowns.
And the timing couldn’t be worse.
Mission-critical freight is growing more complex, not less. Lead times are tightening, not expanding. Yet the very drivers who specialize in impossible deadlines are parking their trucks rather than risk compliance violations they don’t understand or raids they can’t afford.
Exclusive use was never meant to be complicated. That was its entire appeal. But when your simplest solution becomes your biggest vulnerability, the concerns are more than justified.
Something has to give.
Two of the newest trucking regulations could prove to be the most consequential for exclusive-use fleets. The ELP mandate took effect in June, followed by H.R. 1 on July 4. Together, they’re reshaping who can drive and who can’t, with enforcement teeth that make previous regulations look like suggestions.
The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance now has the power to sideline any driver who can’t hold a conversation in English at a weigh station. FMCSA projects 40,000 to 60,000 drivers will get benched in year one alone. The rule technically existed since 1970, but nobody enforced it — until now.
Most vulnerable? Small owner-operators from Mexico, Eastern Europe, and South Asia who handle exclusive-use freight because they’ll take the 2 a.m. calls the big carriers won’t. These drivers might speak functional English, enough to handle freight and navigate routes, but stumble when a CVSA inspector starts grilling them about logbook entries. One failed inspection means out-of-service status. No appeals process. No second chances.
Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” signed July 4, makes the ELP mandate look gentle.
The legislation terminates parole programs and blocks Employment Authorization Documents for vast swaths of workers, potentially removing another 50,000 to 100,000 drivers from the pool. ICE funding jumped from $9.4 billion to $37 billion — enough to rival Canada’s entire military budget.
For exclusive-use carriers, the math gets ugly fast. EAD restrictions alone could bench 40,000 to 80,000 drivers. Expedited removal within 100 miles of the border threatens another 8,000 to 15,000, mostly in Texas and Arizona, where cross-border exclusive use thrives.
Combined with the ELP mandate, total losses could hit 105,000 to 175,000 drivers — a very concerning figure.
The enforcement surge goes beyond paperwork. ICE workplace audits could deter the hiring of 8,000 to 12,000 EAD-dependent drivers, while the agency’s $37 billion budget means raids aren’t theoretical anymore. Immigrants make up 18-20% of truck drivers nationally, but closer to 50% in California’s import corridors.
Which all translates to the aftershocks directly hitting exclusive use hardest.
Exclusive-use fleets have long relied on immigrant drivers who’d built decade-long relationships with shippers, knew every loading dock quirk, and answered phones at midnight. So when close to 3-5% of the driver pool is on the verge of disappearing, you not only lose warm bodies but also institutional knowledge.
Turnover already tops 90% industrywide. Now carriers won’t even consider EAD-dependent drivers, leaving positions permanently unfilled while your exclusive-use options shrink to whoever’s left standing after the audits.
Trucking is in a tight spot right now. Spot van rates have dropped 36% since 2022 to $2.28 per mile, but dedicated freight still gets 1.4 to 1.6 times that rate. If we lose just 3-5% of drivers, though, expect rates to jump another 15-25%.
It’s hard to make the math work in this environment. Especially when operating costs already hit a record $2.26 per mile in 2024 before this mess even started. ACT Research predicts “incremental rate gains” through 2025, which really means rates are going up whether shippers like it or not.
C.H. Robinson is already seeing capacity tighten in the Southeast and Southern California, typically early warning signs for nationwide issues. Add in FMCSA’s regulatory backlog that has carriers stuck between old and new rules, and planning reliable AOG logistics becomes even more of an uphill climb.
Your exclusive-use network is falling apart. The drivers you’ve worked with for years are getting pulled off the road at weigh stations. Everyone else is fighting for the scraps of whatever capacity remains, while rates go through the roof. No, it isn’t pleasant. But we built Carrier 911 for exactly this moment — when the standard playbook stops working and you need someone who makes the impossible possible.
Even if the driver pool hits the optimistic scenario, losing 3% or less of its total pool, rates will still go from expensive to “whatever we decide to charge.” That’s just the facts because this movie plays out time after time: the market turns, capacity vanishes, and suddenly that AOG shipment costs more than the plane part itself. What’s different this time, though? The drivers aren’t coming back, and you’re about to get a harsh lesson in what “no trucks available” really means.
We built Carrier 911 before the rules changed because urgent freight has always been one bad day from disaster. As everyone else scrambles to understand new rules, regulations, and ICE crackdowns, we keep things moving. Our platform delivers exclusive use capacity with compliance already vetted and drivers who answer at 2 a.m. because we treat them with respect and pay them the same day. So if you’re smart and thinking ahead, lock in capacity with us now. Otherwise, you might find yourself explaining to your CEO why that plane is still on the ground or that assembly line is still down after 48 hours.
See a Carrier 911 demo today — before your competitors figure out what’s really happening to the driver pool.
Get a free consultation call with one our specialists.
