Chinese New Year 2026 arrives February 17, and if you’ve managed APAC-to-U.S. freight through the Lunar New Year before, you know what’s coming. Factories across China go offline, sometimes for two weeks or more. Available capacity shrinks while demand spikes. Rates follow.
That reality hits differently when you’re the one managing an AOG crisis against a ticking clock. A grounded aircraft doesn’t care that half of Shenzhen is on holiday.
So ahead of the Year of the Horse, we pulled airfreight volume data and pricing trends from the 2024 and 2025 Lunar New Year cycles to see what patterns are worth watching that can help you plan smarter around the coming freight crunch.
Every year, the weeks leading up to Chinese New Year trigger a predictable spike in APAC-to-U.S. air cargo volumes. Shippers push hard to get orders out before factories close, and carriers tighten capacity to protect rates.
That doesn’t change much year by year.
What makes Chinese New Year 2026 different is the calendar. Because the holiday this year lands in mid-February, it stretched the pre-Lunar New Year shipping window deeper into January than in recent cycles.
Yet even though airlines adjusted early by pulling back January flights to hold rate levels ahead of a late-January demand surge, the 2026 rush played out softer than expected. Reports out of Asia pointed to weaker e-commerce volumes and cautious demand heading into February.
However, the freight crunch has still shown up, even if not as intensely as in past cycles. If you still haven’t locked in capacity yet, with February 17 days away, your options are thinning.
Then the flip side hits.
Once Chinese New Year 2026 officially starts on February 17, factories across China, Vietnam, South Korea, and other major manufacturing hubs will shut down for a week or more. Production stops, workers head home, and APAC airfreight volumes drop hard.
How hard? During the 2025 Lunar New Year, air shipments from China and Hong Kong fell roughly 45%, per WorldACD data. The 2024 cycle was uglier, with volumes dropping around 66% at the lowest point.
Carriers pull freighters offline and consolidate loads during the lull, so even the flights that are running have limited availability. If an AOG situation or another urgent shipment comes up during that window, your options shrink fast.
You’re either getting freight out before February 17 or white-knuckling it through the shutdown with a solid contingency plan.
Worth noting: The 2025 Lunar New Year dip wasn’t as sharp as 2024’s. Analysts called it “relatively shallow,” and the data backs that up: a 45% volume drop versus 66% the year before, as we mentioned above.
A few things softened the fall. E-commerce demand kept planes partially loaded even while factories sat idle. Shippers also got smarter about spreading out shipments ahead of the holiday instead of panic-loading at the last minute. And some APAC freight shifted toward European routes due to evolving U.S. tariff policies, which took pressure off trans-Pacific lanes.
So what does that mean for Chinese New Year 2026? Likely a similar cushion. E-commerce volumes should provide a floor, and more companies are sourcing from Southeast Asia now, which spreads the load across origins.
The Lunar New Year disruption will still hit, but a full free fall looks a lot less likely.
As we mentioned a couple of times, the timing of Chinese New Year 2026 matters here too.
A mid-February holiday gave factories more of January to produce and ship, which stretched the pre-shutdown window longer than in years when the Lunar New Year fell in late January. Forwarders noticed shippers targeting early February for last-minute moves instead of the usual late-January crunch.
The broader market backdrop is also calmer. After a record 11% surge in 2024 air cargo demand and a 3.4% bump in 2025, per IATA data, forecasters project moderate 2-5% growth for 2026. Bellyhold capacity is recovering as international passenger flights ramp back up, and freighter fleets have expanded. Early 2026 Asia-to-U.S. rates have held steady, even dipping slightly below late-2025 peaks.
One thing to watch: Southeast Asia-to-U.S. volumes are growing faster than China-to-U.S. right now. Capacity out of Vietnam or Malaysia may be tighter than what you’ll find out of Chinese hubs. Plan accordingly.
Chinese New Year 2026 is days away. If you’ve already front-loaded inventory and locked in capacity, you’re in good shape. If you haven’t, the window is closing fast. For anyone managing AOG recovery freight or other shipments that can’t afford delays, here are five strategies to act on right now.
Chinese New Year 2026 follows a pattern you’ve seen before: a pre-holiday freight rush, a steep volume drop once shutdowns hit, and a slow ramp back to normal over the weeks that follow. The later holiday timing and a more balanced market may soften the swings compared to past years, but “softer” doesn’t mean painless when you’ve got aircraft sitting idle.
That’s where Carrier 911 comes in. We built our services around the exact moments your supply chain is under the most pressure. AOG recovery parts stranded by holiday cancellations, last-minute shipments that need expedited ground transport, and final -mile delivery that gets parts from the tarmac to the hangar floor fast. Our team operates 24/7 and treats your emergency like what it is: urgent.
The Lunar New Year freight crunch is here. Your backup plan should already be in place.
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